Empirical models of demand for differentiated products rely on low-dimensional product representations to capture substitution patterns. These representations are increasingly proxied by applying ML methods to high-dimensional, unstructured data, including product descriptions and images. When proxies fail to capture the true dimensions of differentiation that drive substitution, standard workflows will deliver biased counterfactuals and invalid inference. We develop a practical toolkit that corrects this bias and ensures valid inference for a broad class of counterfactuals. Our approach applies to market-level and/or individual data, requires minimal additional computation, is efficient, delivers simple formulas for standard errors, and accommodates data-dependent proxies, including embeddings from fine-tuned ML models. It can also be used with standard quantitative attributes when mismeasurement is a concern. In addition, we propose diagnostics to assess the adequacy of the proxy construction and dimension. The approach yields meaningful improvements in predicting counterfactual substitution in both simulations and an empirical application.

The Adam optimizer is a cornerstone of modern deep learning, yet the empirical necessity of each of its individual components is often taken for granted. This paper presents a focused investigation into the role of bias-correction, a feature whose contribution remains poorly understood. Through a series of systematic ablations on vision and language modelling tasks, we demonstrate that the conventional wisdom surrounding bias correction is misleading. In particular, we demonstrate that in the optimal hyper-parameter configuration, the inclusion of bias correction leads to no improvement in final test performance. Moreover, unless appropriate learning rate scheduling is implemented, the inclusion of bias correction can sometimes be detrimental to performance. We further reinterpret bias correction as a form of implicit learning rate scheduling whose behaviour is strongly dependent on the choice of smoothing hyper-parameters $β_1, β_2 \in [0,1)$. Our findings challenge the universal inclusion of this component.

Estimating entropies and divergences of probability distributions in a consistent manner is of importance in a number of problems in machine learning.

Machine learning models often fail on out-of-distribution data.

Theoretically, we prove that SFB can learn an asymptotically-optimal predictor without test-domain labels. Empirically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of SFB on real and synthetic data.

Bureau of Meteorology, Australia ABSTRACT: Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather models are now reaching operational-grade performance for some variables, but like traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, they exhibit systematic biases and reliability issues. We test the application of the Bureau of Meteorology's existing statistical post-processing system, IMPROVER, to ECMWF's deterministic Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS), and compare results against post-processed outputs from the ECMWF HRES and ENS models. Without any modification to processing workflows, post-processing yields comparable accuracy improvements for AIFS as for traditional NWP forecasts, in both expected value and probabilistic outputs. We show that blending AIFS with NWP models improves overall forecast skill, even when AIFS alone is not the most accurate component. These findings show that statistical post-processing methods developed for NWP are directly applicable to AI models, enabling national meteorological centres to incorporate AI forecasts into existing workflows in a low-risk, incremental fashion. Notice This Work has been accepted by Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the Version of Record (VoR).

Learning Rate Warmup is a popular heuristic for training neural networks, especially at larger batch sizes, despite limited understanding of its benefits.

Imbalanced data, where the positive samples represent only a small proportion compared to the negative samples, makes it challenging for classification problems to balance the false positive and false negative rates. A common approach to addressing the challenge involves generating synthetic data for the minority group and then training classification models with both observed and synthetic data. However, since the synthetic data depends on the observed data and fails to replicate the original data distribution accurately, prediction accuracy is reduced when the synthetic data is naively treated as the true data. In this paper, we address the bias introduced by synthetic data and provide consistent estimators for this bias by borrowing information from the majority group. We propose a bias correction procedure to mitigate the adverse effects of synthetic data, enhancing prediction accuracy while avoiding overfitting. This procedure is extended to broader scenarios with imbalanced data, such as imbalanced multi-task learning and causal inference. Theoretical properties, including bounds on bias estimation errors and improvements in prediction accuracy, are provided. Simulation results and data analysis on handwritten digit datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Multi-bit quantization networks enable flexible deployment of deep neural networks by supporting multiple precision levels within a single model. However, existing approaches suffer from significant training overhead as full-dataset updates are repeated for each supported bit-width, resulting in a cost that scales linearly with the number of precisions. Additionally, extra fine-tuning stages are often required to support additional or intermediate precision options, further compounding the overall training burden. To address this issue, we propose two techniques that greatly reduce the training overhead without compromising model utility: (i) Weight bias correction enables shared batch normalization and eliminates the need for fine-tuning by neutralizing quantization-induced bias across bit-widths and aligning activation distributions; and (ii) Bit-wise coreset sampling strategy allows each child model to train on a compact, informative subset selected via gradient-based importance scores by exploiting the implicit knowledge transfer phenomenon. Experiments on CIFAR-10/100, TinyImageNet, and ImageNet-1K with both ResNet and ViT architectures demonstrate that our method achieves competitive or superior accuracy while reducing training time up to 7.88x. Our code is released at https://github.com/a2jinhee/EMQNet_jk.